An Occupational Framework for Assessing the Impact of Modern Artificial Intelligence Technologies on Work

How does the emergence of predictive and generative AI impact work? This question has garnered importance as modern AI technologies stand to disrupt a wider range of jobs, including expert work involving problem solving and creativity. We integrate theory from the economic and interactionist perspectives on technology to offer an occupational framework for assessing technological disruption to work. We develop four propositions, considering the difference between codified and situated expertise at the core of an occupation, the socioeconomics of automation, an occupation’s level of autonomy in the workplace, and political power at the field level. Together, these propositions account for an occupation’s exposure to AI, and the occupation’s power to influence how new technologies are used, repurposed, or resisted. Our framework thus highlights the role of institutions and power in analyzing technological disruption. This approach yields several counterintuitive predictions which depart from current forecasts. An occupational framework suggests, for example, that even if new technologies have the technical capability to automate an occupation’s tasks, this is unlikely to occur if the occupation has accumulated significant autonomy in the workplace and power at the field level. Together, our paper provides more nuanced predictions about how occupations could experience AI disruption, including which occupations are likely to experience augmentation or deskilling of work.