Dual Credit Markets: Income Risk, Household Debt, and Consumption

Many young employees work on a temporary basis, which entails significantly greater income risk than “permanent” work, even for jobs in the same occupation and at a similar wage. We find that this income uncertainty leads lenders to ration credit to temporary workers, precisely at the stage of life when permanent workers rely on mortgages to invest in housing and loans to smooth consumption and purchase durable goods. Labor laws that improve job security for permanent workers create a dual credit market alongside the dual labor market, making it harder for young adults to establish financial independence and new families.