Inside the opponent's head: Losses in group position predict accuracy in metaperceptions between groups

Members of groups in conflict typically perceive the same reality in opposing ways. We investigated individuals’ ability to accurately perceive out-group members’ views of the conflict. Drawing on research on power and metaperceptions, we hypothesized that perceiving losses to in-group position would increase accuracy in predicting out-group members’ views. Study 1 was conducted immediately following the Gaza flotilla incident. Israelis, who perceived the event as causing political losses to their group, were more accurate in predicting out-group members’ views of the incident than were Palestinians, who perceived the event as causing political gains for their group. Moreover, Israelis’ accuracy increased with their perception of political losses for Israel, whereas Palestinians’ accuracy decreased with their perception of political gains for Palestinians. These effects were particularly pronounced among those participants who were highly identified with their group. Study 2 replicated the relationship between perceived losses and accuracy, and demonstrated that it could not be accounted for by factors such as education, political orientation, or empathy.