Testing Alternative Models of New Product Diffusion

This paper reports upon the testing of the comparative performance of eight epidemic based diffusion models on data describing the diffusion of camcorders and CD players in the UK and cars in West Germany. Standard epidemic models of new product diffusion are modified to allow for the influence of economic factors and compared to a recent model proposed by Karshenas and Stoneman. The performance of the Karshenas and Stoneman model is good, but so is that of an alternative model in the Marketing literature proposed by Easingwood, Mahajan and Muller.