Is Dollar Dominance Past its Peak?

Abstract

This lecture, based on the recent book, Our Dollar, Your Problem and related research, explores the post-war rise of dollar, and argues that the dollar's dominant market share cannot be taken for granted in the future, and in fact may already be in decline. The recent shift towards a more balkanized global trading system, the undermining of core institutions including central bank independence, stands to accelerate a trend that has already begun a decade ago catalyzed in part by extensive US of financial sanctions and unsustainable fiscal policy. The dollar may remain first among currencies for the foreseeable future, but it could become king of much smaller hill with inflation, interest rates and exchange rates subject to much greater volatility.